Nawaz Sharif has many hoops to jump, takes leap with signal to India in first speech - The Indian Express

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Nawaz Sharif may have several legal and electoral hoops to jump through before he gets to be Pakistan’s Prime Minister again. And he has no magic wand to pull his nation out of its polycrisis. Yet, in his address to a large gathering in Lahore Saturday night, he sought to reorient Pakistan’s domestic discourse on India.

In insisting that no country can progress while fighting with its neighbours, Sharif, who served thrice before as Prime Minister, made a strong public case for renewed engagement with India.

To reinforce his argument, Sharif pointed to how far Pakistan has fallen behind its neighbours. He made a special reference to economic progress in Bangladesh that was East Pakistan until 1971. Pakistan’s per capita GDP today (at around $1500) is about $1000 lower than that of Bangladesh. In the last few weeks, Sharif drew a contrast between India landing on the moon and Pakistan scouting around for a few billion dollars.

Sharif’s image as a builder and economic moderniser provides the developmental case for re-engaging India.

Sharif’s talk of a new beginning with India generates much scepticism in Delhi. That is no surprise, given the dismal record of the India-Pak peace process. To be sure, Delhi has its own conditions for re-engagement–-ending cross-border terror.

Delhi will keep its fingers crossed on how successful Sharif’s fourth shot at becoming the prime minister will be but his return marks an important turn in Pakistan’s domestic politics. Sharif also brings a measure of credibility when he speaks of engaging India.

For one, Sharif had no reason to put talks with India at the top of his political agenda when he is trying to reclaim Pakistan’s leadership after four years in exile. There is no political mileage in Pakistan for wanting peace with India. On the contrary.

In fact, one of the reasons for Sharif’s ouster from power in 2017 was his enthusiasm for engaging Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Against the advice of the Pakistan establishment, Sharif showed up at the swearing-in ceremony of Modi in May 2014.

The absence of a direct reference to Kashmir in the joint statement that Sharif negotiated with Modi at the bilateral meeting in July 2015 on the margins of a multilateral meeting in Ufa, Russia invited vicious attacks in Pakistan.

Sharif’s call on the Army leadership in late 2016, reported in the Dawn newspaper, to stop the terror activities of the militant groups that were causing enormous harm to Pakistan’s regional and international position, generated much anger in Rawalpindi. The so-called ‘Dawn Leaks Case’ set the stage for his ouster a few months later in 2017.

Second, if engaging India has been a matter of conviction for Sharif, he also had the unique opportunity to negotiate with all the Prime Ministers of India since 1990. His three tenures as the PM over the last three decades and more saw Sharif hold talks with Chandra Shekhar, PV Narasimha Rao, Inder Kumar Gujral, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh and Modi.

That raises the key question: If the army always pulled the plug on Sharif’s outreach to India, why would it let him go ahead now?

All indications are that Sharif’s return to Pakistan is part of a deal with the Army. Why has the Army allowed Sharif back after it got rid of him in 2017? The army leadership, which rigged the 2018 general elections and installed Khan in power, did not take long to suffer from buyer’s remorse.

Few civilians have launched such a direct assault on the Pak Army in the manner that Imran did. For Pak Army chief Gen Asim Munir, the principal contradiction in domestic politics is with Imran Khan, and Sharif is part of the answer.

Does bringing Sharif back mean Rawalpindi is now in favour of a sensible relationship with Delhi? Not necessarily. But the fact is that Gen Munir’s predecessor, Gen Qamar Jawed Bajwa did negotiate a ceasefire agreement in February 2021 with the Modi government.

Bajwa was betting that the ceasefire would be followed by small steps such as restoration of high commissioners and trade in selected items. But Imran Khan apparently vetoed that proposal.

It is reasonable to assume Gen Munir has bought into his predecessor’s argument that the time has come for Pakistan to focus on economic development rather than pursue unreasonable geopolitical ambitions.

What about Jammu and Kashmir, the perennial problem in the India-Pakistan engagement?

In his speech Saturday, Sharif did refer to resolving the Kashmir question in a general way; if and when the talks begin, it should not be too difficult to pick up the threads from the 2021 ceasefire agreement that committed both sides to address the core concerns of the other–terror for India and Kashmir for Pakistan.

Finally, one new factor is the positive role of the Gulf countries in nudging Pakistan to double down on economic reform and the peace process with India. Gen Munir has won promises for major investments from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to revive Pakistan’s fortunes.